Perhaps the most interesting announcement of the recent election was the formation of a "Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.)". For those who aren't familiar with the internet meme, "doge" is slang for dog, and the likeness, below, is of a now-famous Shiba Inu dog named Kabosu. There is a crypto-currency named after him, Dogecoin, and, now, a government "department".
I promise you that I am neither a government insider nor the possessor of a crystal ball. Perhaps by sheer coincidence, I did, however, anticipate this development and wrote about it earlier in that day, prior to the announcement:
"FOR TRUMP - - MAYBE THROUGH MUSK - - THE PRECEDENT IS THERE, MAKE A NEW PACK OF "WHIZ KIDS"" - Semper Doctrina, afternoon of Nov. 12, 2024
In the post, as I was decrying the lack of STEM leadership in the new cabinet picks, I recounted John F. Kennedy's choice of Robert McNamara to lead - - and reform - - the Department of Defense. I encourage you to read that entire post, here.
THERE IS ANOTHER PRECEDENT, THROUGH RONALD REAGAN, OF A GOVERNMENT "EFFICIENCY" DEPARTMENT
"In February 1982, Ronald Reagan announced at a press conference that he would form a group of “outstanding experts from the private sector” that would conduct an in-depth review of the entire Executive Branch, and make recommendations for eliminating waste and inefficiency. On June 30 he issued the Executive Order establishing the President’s Private Sector Survey on Cost Control in the Federal Government (PPSSCC). The PPSSCC was popularly called the “Grace Commission” after its Chairman J. Peter Grace, the CEO of W. R. Grace & Company." - Ronald Reagan Library, reaganlibrary.gov
This effort also gave us the expression, "Drain the Swamp!"
"During his 1980 presidential campaign, Reagan described the federal bureaucracy as "overgrown and overweight" and pledged to bring "corruption fighters" into government. It will also be recalled that he declared, on his inaugural day as president, that he had come to Washington "to drain the swamp." he explained, "Government does not solve problems, it is the problem." he also pledged to "limit government to its proper role and make it the servant, not the master of the people." - Donald J Savoie, "Thatcher, Reagan, and Mulroney: In Search of a New Bureaucracy" p.92
The review took 18 months and cost about $75 million dollars: The Commission report, with its 2,500 recommendations, was presented to Congress in January 1984. It's hard to judge the effort's impact: Many recommendations were ignored and many others were already under consideration. As one might expect, it had many detractors: "It's based on illusions about the failings of Government and the success of private business.", said former Representative Richard Bolling, Democrat of Missouri.
WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT WHAT D.O.G.E. IS SETTING OUT TO DO?
In his statement on November 12th, Trump stated that D.O.G.E. would be led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. The department is not an official government agency, so Ramaswamy and Musk are not considered Cabinet members and are, therefore, not subject to Senate confirmation.
Trump has further said that Musk and Ramaswamy’s work “will conclude no later than July 4, 2026,” or by the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. The advisory will work with OMB, the Office of Management and Budget. Does this remind you of the Grace Commission, above? It sure does.
The rhetoric is heated. Ramaswamy has called for the total elimination or the restructuring of several agencies, including the FBI, the Department of Education, the Internal Revenue Service, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
MUSK KNOWS THAT OPPOSITION TO THE INITIATIVE WILL BE IMMENSE - - WHY SHOULD THE RICHEST MAN ON EARTH GIVE A DAMN?
"The antibody reaction will be very strong. You're attacking the Matrix at that point. The Matrix will fight back." - Elon Musk
Why on Earth would Musk want to take on the Matrix?! The better question is "Why on Mars?".
In a previous post, "ZOMBIES, VAMPIRES, ALIENS! Plan for Those, Plan for All", I give a framework for thinking about bad things. In my framework, I describe things as having a duration, a scope, and a scale of impact: They also carry some probability of happening. Read the full post, here.
Musk believes mankind faces an existential crisis and needs an outpost on Mars to save it. Musk dreams of Mars.
THANKFULLY, PEOPLE DO THINK ABOUT LOW-PROBABILITY, HIGH-IMPACT (SCOPE, SCALE), LONG-HORIZON EVENTS
I've heard Elon Musk go on and on about wanting to go to Mars. I'm sure you have as well. I've always thought this was absurd, pure ego, arrogant bluster. Who would want to go to Mars when the Earth is perfect?! This was always my retort. … These events [an asteroid hitting Earth], though extraordinarily unlikely, have, potentially, planet-killing power. … So, Elon is right. A colony on Mars is a rational objective." - Semper Doctrina
MUSK VIEWS THE IMPENDING, GOVERNMENT FISCAL CRISIS AS A NEAR-TERM THREAT TO HUMANITY'S PROGRESS - - PROGRESS TO MARS
At the Trump rally in Madison Square Garden, on October 28th, Musk stated his belief DOGE could cut $2 trillion from the U.S. federal budget. To give you an idea of the size of that cut, the budget in fiscal year 2023 was $6.1 trillion, representing 22.7 percent of the US GDP. He wants to cut one-third of US federal spending. (Government revenue for the same period was $4.4 trillion, or 16.5% of GDP - - we put the difference, $1.7 trillion, on our "credit card".)
In a previous post, "Peter, Parkinson, Praying For a Benevolent Dictator", I assert the following:
Government Is Not Doing a Good Job, and the Citizenry Is Unhappy With the Government
But … Government Workers and Congress Incumbents Love Their Jobs
Government Is Ossified: Workers Earn More and Quit Less; 90%+ of Incumbents Get Re-Elected
Peter Principle and Parkinson's Law Guarantee that Government Grows, Grows Larger and Less Competent, Year-by-Year
Government Is Unsustainable at Current Size, at No Growth!
"The greater the public debt, the less likely that it can be and will be paid back, ever. Government debt hurts the economy by competing with private parties for capital and by necessitating future tax increases or spending cuts to pay interest. The Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) believes the US has until about 2040 to correct the issue before catastrophic default, Zugzwang." - Semper Doctrina
I go on,
"Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky described what they call the "planning fallacy" in 1979. People systematically underestimate the time needed to complete a task, they are biased toward optimism. … I mentioned the Wharton debt model above; the planning fallacy would suggest that they are overoptimistic. What if the fiscal zugswang is two elections away, in 2032?!" - Semper Doctrina
MUSK UNDERSTANDS THE PARABLE OF THE BROKEN WINDOW - - BROKEN GLASS MATTERS, WASTE MATTERS
French economist Frédéric Bastiat in his 1850 essay "That Which Is Seen, and That Which Is Not Seen" ("Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas"), teaches us that destruction, and money we spend to recover from destruction, is a net loss to our society.
Bastiat tells us the story of a shopkeeper whose son accidentally breaks a window. Passers-by tell him that accidents happen - - it's good for the glazier, how would he have a job, if no windows ever broke?! Bastiat points out that, were the glazier to pay the boy to break windows, to create the need for the repair, everyone would see it for what it is, theft. Were the window not broken, the shopkeeper could spend the money on something he desired, like a new shoes or a book, not glass.
GOVERNMENT WASTE IS THEFT, JUST AS THE PARABLE OF THE BROKEN WINDOW TEACHES, THEFT OF MONEY WE COULD SPEND ON THINGS THAT WE DESIRE
Waste in government spending is a particularly foul theft, due to the enormous power that government has to compel us to pay, to "repair the broken window". Penalties for not paying taxes are severe: penalties, interest, even incarceration - - loss of liberty.
Thus, it stings us to hear stories of government waste. With D.O.G.E. breathing, the air is filled with items like these on the internet:
THE TASK IS ENORMOUS & THE MATRIX IS POWERFUL, BUT MUSK IS MOTIVATED AND HAS ONE THING GRACE AND MCNAMARA LACKED
I have more than a little experience with "efficiency": If you know me, or if you've been a reader of my posts, you know this. I've talked about my experience at Toyota, where I was a Group Leader and Toyota Production System Instructor. I've talked about my experience at BCG, where I was a Strategy Consultant and Process Re-engineer. A number of my posts have touched on the challenges Musk and Ramaswamy will face, like "HEALTHY PRUNES - - Just a trim or to the root ball?", for instance.
Naturally, I've a number of thoughts to share on what DOGE will face and how they might move forward. But, let's tackle that in the future. I want to leave you with one idea:
Musk's purchase of Twitter was widely criticized. I don't believe many understand the sheer genius of the move.
MUSK WILL EXPLOIT THE POWER OF X (TWITTER) TO CROWDSOURCE DOGE SOLUTIONS AND SHAME THE RECALCITRANT INTO MAKING CHANGES
Grace and McNamara never had a microphone: They never had a mass-communication media like the one Musk controls.
“We need super high-IQ small-government revolutionaries willing to work 80+ hours per week on unglamorous cost-cutting. If that’s you, DM this account with your CV. Elon & Vivek will review the top 1% of applicants.” - DOGE post on X
“Indeed, this will be tedious work, make lots of enemies, and compensation is zero. What a great deal!” - Elon Musk
Elon, I'm guardedly optimistic. Let's go to Mars.