Rock! Paper! Scissors!
Cocaine-Powered Pigeons
Remember the child game, "rock, paper, scissors"? Just recently, we used it in my house to settle something silly, in a fair way. It's a "simultaneous, zero-sum" game: One either wins, loses, or is in a draw. Everyone replays a draw until a winner emerges.
The rules are simple: We pump a closed fist up and down to a three count, saying "Rock! Paper! Scissors!", and then, on the fourth beat, we say "Shoot!" as we form either a rock, paper, or scissors with our hand. Rock beats Scissors. Paper beats Rock. Scissors beats Paper. One could say, "R>S P>R S>P". Personally, I think that expression has too much of a "linear" feel to it - - I like to represent it in a circular form.
According to a writer in the Ming dynasty, the game dates back to the Han dynasty in China, 200BC-200AD. From China it spread to Japan, where these games were called Sansukumi-ken (三すくみ拳) meaning games "of the three who are afraid of one another". The parties of three were varied, like "slug, snake, frog", or "fox, hunter, village chief".
What matters to us is that the game is a simple one with a dominance hierarchy: We can choose whatever we want for the parties of three, and, as long as "A beats B, B beats C, and C beats A", it works! I'm going to use this game and it simple rules of hierarchy to illustrate some ideas about innovation. Stay with me for a bit, and I'll give you Cocaine-Powered Pigeons by the end.
Have you been following the conflict in Eastern Europe much? As in most conflicts, we hear stories of the losses of men and material, of the uses missiles and bombs, and of the winning and losing of battles. There is a decidedly new element, though: Drones. There are big ones, and there are little ones; some are tasked to see, and most are tasked to bomb.
DRONES ARE EVOLVING IN A DECIDEDLY LINEAR WAY
While I'll explore this further in a future post on their disruptive impact on warfare, let me say this about drones for now: There is a decidedly linear evolution of the drones being used in the conflict. Most recently, we have seen a couple of new "features". One, in response to being vulnerable to signal jamming, drones are now "flying-by-wire" with a thin strand of fiber optic line. Two, in response to soldiers hiding from drones in forests and hedgerows, a new drone has appeared that spits fire to burn foliage, "Drakaris", in reference to the dragons in the popular series "Game of Thrones".
IS THERE A "ROCK" TO THE DRONE "SCISSOR"?
War accelerates innovation. It has certainly accelerated innovation in drones. If you ponder it, you can sense there is an endpoint to that evolution, and it is close. Soon, I'll predict soon, we'll get that "rock" to the drone "scissor", an entirely new, step-change response to "tit for tat" drone warfare. I believe there are a few candidates.
I loved, loved, loved the actor Robin Williams. He was extraordinarily creative, an exceptionally-gifted improvisor. Building on great success in stand-up comedy, Williams later dazzled the world with his acting. Director Garry Marshall recalls a casting session for Mork, the alien from Ork, in what became the hit sitcom "Mork & Mindy",
"The next week I walked into my office and the street performer was sitting on my couch upside-down on his head. When he saw me, he stood straight up, and started pretending to drink a glass of water with his finger. That is how I first met Robin Williams."
Who does that?! Our human Robin walked into the room with a mindset. He was "Mork"; He was from "Ork". No human had ever met an alien from Ork, so Robin was entirely free. He could define himself and his environment in any way he chose. The set of possibilities for Robin, the intersection, the set of what HE CAN DO and what HE MAY DO is large, galactically large, in fact. [If you've not read it already, go on later to read my post, "Golden Flops and Waves", and find the gold, two-by-two matrix.]
Robin did not define that space he occupied, or any object or behavior in it, by human conventions. He filled that giant, open opportunity with new, unexpected, unknown behavior. He got the role.
Can you think of other anecdotes of otherworldly, "outside-the-box" thinking? Please share in the comments.
NEW BEHAVIOR WILL EMERGE IN RESPONSE TO DRONES
In our child's game, "rock, paper, scissors", we define that hierarchy, rock smashes scissors. What if you don't want to play tit for tat with drones? Can you just smash the scissors, with a rock? What is the the unspoken hierarchy in the game that is being played with drones?
What is outside the box? What might an alien from Ork do?
Electromagnetic energy is one big "rock". In September 1859, the Sun "burped". A coronal mass ejection (CME) happens when there is a significant ejection of magnetic field and accompanying plasma mass from the Sun's corona into its surrounding atmosphere. The 1859 "Carrington" event, named after British astronomer Richard Carrington, was the largest geomagnetic storm in recorded history. At that time, our "technology" was limited to the primitive telegraph: Systems all over Europe and North America failed, some threw sparks and gave their operators electric shocks, others continued operating despite having been disconnected from their power supply! [For reference, note that Thomas Edison's own, private home was the first to be wired for electric power, in 1878!]
You witness an EMP when you see lightening; other natural EMPs include CMEs, like Carrington, and those caused by meteoroids. Man can make them too; they happen in electrical switching and motors. Nuclear weapons release EMPs upon explosion, and there are special variants designed to maximize the damaging EMP pulse itself. There are also a variety of non-nuclear, EMP-generating weapons: Compact in size and with limited range, these weapons can be carried by missiles, bombs, drones, and humans!
In 2024, the entire world is wired, interdependently, and is uniquely vulnerable to damage and failure from pulses of electromagnetic energy (EMP). An energetic EMP can temporarily or permanently damage electronic equipment - - semiconductor components are particularly at risk. As one might imagine, militaries do take steps to maintain a subset of assets with reduced vulnerability to EMP, but, ultimately, they are inextricably intertwined with EMP-vulnerable, critical infrastructure. The threat posed by EMP is featured in a number of books and movies: One charming example is "Survival Family" (2017) {Sabaibaru famirī}, featuring a spoiled Japanese family forced to rediscover old ways of living without technology. [Free to watch on the large video streaming site.]
Do you think the use of drones in warfare has made the risk of nuclear exchange higher or lower? Are our governments and economies prepared for EMP?
EMPs will be used against electronic and electrical systems. It’s inevitable.
I promised Cocaine-Powered Pigeons.
The EMP "rock" is not - - in all but extreme cases - - damaging to humans and animals. Got that? The rock that smashes drones doesn't impact non-electronic things. Do you see where I am going with this? We could see conflicts where non-nuclear EMPs (NNEMP) weapons destroy electrical and electronic systems but leave structures, people, and other life un-impacted. This leads me to my second prediction: Increased use of animals and insects in combat environments, building on a long history of such use, including:
- horses, donkeys and camels used for transportation
- dogs used in explosive detection and search and rescue missions
- dolphins, sea lions, and beluga whales used in nautical missions, including mine and intruder detection
- birds, especially pigeons and ravens, used to carry messages and cameras and to plant surveillance devices
- ferrets, monkeys, and cats used for various purposes
- insects, including moths and beetles, used - - so far, experimentally - - to create surveillance cyborgs
Animals are capable of extraordinary feats: Bobbie the Wonder Dog (1921–27) famously walked 2,551 miles (4,105 km) on his own to return home to Silverton, Oregon, after he was lost while his owners were visiting family in Wolcott, Indiana. Other examples abound.
Can you share any other examples of super-animals? Use the comment section.
My cocaine-powered pigeon is, of course, fanciful. But not so much. Modern technology, supplementing animal and insect abilities could create cyborg variants with new or enhanced skillets. Augmented reality and artificial intelligence could create new training regimens. Chemical stimulants could be used to modify behaviors. Could we see swarming, meth-motivated mice? Maybe.
Again, as with EMPs, this increased use of animals and insects is inevitable, in this game of rock, paper, scissors.
It is important, when looking at the strategy of any conflict, to ascertain which elements are undergoing an incremental evolution. It is at those points when they predictably evolve that they are most vulnerable to a step-disruption by someone who throws out the winning hand to which they must succumb. Rock beats Scissors. Paper beats Rock. Scissors beats Paper.
Creatives, whether individual or groups, should rightly focus their innovative energies on those winning, disruptive hands and be wary of over investing in the current fashion.