Drones Not Done

Swarm's Evolving Escalation Cycle

We wake to news this morning that Russia repelled another drone swarm last night: Over the past three nights, the Russian Defense Ministry claims to have intercepted around 500 drones.

DRONE WARFARE - - REMARKABLE MANY WAYS - - ESPECIALLY NUMBERS

The volume of drones being used in the Ukrainian conflict is mind-boggling. While there has been active fighting in Ukraine for decades, let’s focus on the last three years, the time following Russia’s entrance into Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

The numbers are difficult to pin down exactly, but we can make broad guesses based on media reports. Russia and Ukraine each fielded about 100 thousand drones in 2023; ten times that number, or 1 million, in 2024; and intends to field five times that number this year - - 5 million each. Ten million new drones in 2025!

Russia and Ukraine, collectively, will crank out a drone every three seconds.

“Our arrows will blot out the Sun,” said the Persian.

“Then we will fight in the shade,” replied the Spartan Selios.

Battle of Thermopylae, 480BC, as depicted in the film “300” (2007)

DRONE BATTLEFIELD IS UNSURVIVABLE BY MAN OR MACHINE

For the individual soldier, the land is as uninhabitable as the chemical-gassed and aerially-bombarded front lines of World War I. They are afraid to move, afraid to eat, and afraid to sleep. The stress is immense - - this causes them to make mistakes, lethal ones, in an atmosphere of constant surveillance.

Drones have created a buzzing, shimmering, all-covering “minefield” in the sky.

It is estimated that 75% of Russian and Ukrainian casualties are drone-related.

It is equally inhospitable to machine. We are accustomed to stories of the horrible IED, or improvised explosive device, that our soldiers encountered in the Middle East over the past few decades. Drones have given these a new twist: A recent development is the drone that loiters on the side of a roadway. When a vehicle passes by, the drone takes flight, catches the vehicle at a vulnerable point, and then detonates its explosive charge.

Drone IEDs are the roadways’ lethal, attack dogs, omnipresent, lying in wait.

During the early days of the conflict, drones were relatively expensive and weren’t used in these “kamikaze” ways. As costs declined and as drones became available in quantity, they took over the battlefield.

ERA OF MANNED CRAFT IS OVER, AS OF THE UKRAINIAN CONFLICT

The cost effectiveness of drones makes it so. This is true for all scenarios, drone versus tank, plane, or ship. Let’s do tanks.

• Drone cost: Let’s say $500 for a simple drone with explosive.

• Drone effectiveness: Let’s say it takes four drones to do the job, accounting for misses, jamming, or partial damage. Thus, total drone cost is $2,000

• Tank cost: Let’s take the modernized T-72 tank at $2.5 million.

• $2,000 worth of drones kills a tank worth $2,500,000.

• This ratio of “value” is 1,250 to ONE!

As I mentioned, the math works the same for other equipment targets.

What you see here is the Ukrainian Magura 5 drone boat. You could tow it with your Prius - - or your Tesla! It can travel 500 miles on its battery and can carry about 500 pounds of explosives. Its bigger brother, the Sea Baby, was used to hit the Kerch Bridge. At a cost of $250,000, the Magura can damage or sink a vessel worth hundreds of millions of dollars. $100,000,000 divided by $250,000 equals 400 to ONE!

Take a peek at the back of that vessel. See that flat thing that looks like a boogie board? That is a Starlink terminal antenna. Yes, that Starlink, Elon’s company. Some describe these boat drones as merely a boat with a Starlink. It is the critical component.

DRONE WAR IN UKRAINE HAS A NUMBER OF OUTSIDE ENABLERS

There are a number of outside parties with a vested interest in the conflict.

Iran. Earlier in the conflict, Russia acquired some drones from Iran, the Shahed 131 & 136 variants. Later, with Iran’s help, Russia constructed a large facility to manufacture these drones in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Yelabuga, Tatarstan. Ukraine struck this facility last month, from 1,000 kilometers away.

Chinese parts are in nearly all of the drones, both those of Ukraine and those of Russia. Drone electronic controllers and rotor motors are Chinese in origin. While Ukraine has access to the full component market through the West, Russia is limited to items which are dual-use and those it can acquire on the grey market.

The US is not supplying either side with drone components it seems, but both sides are using the Starlink satellite service for navigation, communication, and drone targeting. Ukraine is particularly reliant on the service. Russians, forbidden to use it by sanctions, have found ways to acquire the terminals on third world marketplaces. Were the US determined to stop the Ukraine conflict, turning off Starlink would halt it immediately. (See the Magura, above.)

Here it is also worth comment that US drones were a total failure in Ukraine. They utterly failed. The Switchblade, Phoenix Ghost, ScanEagle and others were expensive and combat ineffective - - the Ukrainians abandoned them and learned to build their own.

An unspoken reason that neither the United States nor China would seek to bring this conflict to an end is their desire to continue learning from Ukraine and Russia as they evolve through the “Drone Swarm Escalation Cycle”. Look and learn.

The United States has not fought a peer, or even a near-peer, since World War 2. The Chinese are even more lacking in combat experience. Experts on the Ukraine conflict note that Chinese military equipment, like its drones, is “toylike” and not built for the rigors of the battlefield. Likewise, US equipment is too costly, complex, and outdated, ill-suited to current conditions.

UKRAINE AND RUSSIA HAVE EVOLVED, IN THEIR OWN WAYS

Russia was caught off guard early on. Like the United States, they were used to large, expensive, airplane-type drones, the types used for high-altitude reconnaissance and the occasional missile strike.

Ukrainians learned to modify off-the-shelf, cheap, consumer drones and fielded these in “kamikaze” attacks. Unable to protect big, complex facilities, the Ukrainians utilize a large number of hidden production teams. Perhaps 500 small firms are involved in drone production in Ukraine. One such firm, Skyfall, the producer of the Vampire and Shrike drones, utilizes 350 3D printers running around the clock: They produce 4,000 drones per day.

Ukraine has initiatives to provide grants to startups and facilitate their access to venture capital. Ukraine’s efforts are spearheaded by Deputy Prime Minister for Innovation, Education, Science and Technology – Minister for Digital Transformation, 34-year-old Mykhailo Fedorov.

Russia’s challenge is to leverage its historical strength in mass production without squeezing the life and creative energies out of the hundreds of small, Russian firms that have helped it catch up to Ukraine in small drone development. You would not have realized it at the time, but my November 2024 post, “WANTED: STEM in the Executive Branch, People are Policy” was related to this.

“On May 12, 2024, Russian President Putin appointed Andrei Belousov Minister of Defense, replacing Sergei Shoigu, a military officer. With a background in mathematics, physics, and cybernetics, Belousov has served his government in economic development and trade roles. It is said that military spending is currently about one-third of the Russian economy. Belousov is tasked with managing Russia's "war economy", making it more efficient and innovative.” - Semper Doctrina, ibid.

Russia and Ukraine both realize that rapid development cycles, driven by real, front-line feedback is the key to survival in the 21st-Century battlespace. This is the antithesis of the expensive, bureaucratic, and slow processes which characterize the current, US military industrial system.

FINALLY, THE MOST IMPORTANT DRONE COMPONENT, PILOTS

The soldier of the future will rely more on brains than on brawn. It’s been found that musicians and video gamers are the rock stars of the drone world. Their nimble fingers, fast reaction time, high concentration, and rapid thinking ideally suit them to working with drones.

Both Russia and Ukraine have initiatives to train more than 10,000 pilots this year. But, Semper … they’re making 10 million drones this year! As always, pilots are the scarce commodity.

CLEARLY, THE FUTURE OF WARFARE IS TO “UNMAN”

FIRST, TO UNMAN MACHINES, THE PLANES, TANKS, AND SHIPS

SECOND, TO TAKE MAN OFF THE BATTLEFIELD ITSELF

FINALLY, TO TAKE MAN OUT OF THE DISTANT, DRONE PILOT ROLE

ULTIMATELY, TO MAKE IT ALL AUTONOMOUS, DRIVEN BY AI

Thank you!